南方基金：美联储“换届”时刻+关税升级，后市怎么看？

Group 1 - The recent focus in overseas markets revolves around two core events: the independence and future policy direction of the Federal Reserve, and new variables in the international trade environment [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is at a transitional phase with Chairman Powell's term ending in May, leading to discussions about potential successors who represent different monetary policy inclinations, which could be crucial for the future of the dollar [5][7] - Four prominent candidates for the Fed chairmanship include: Hassett, a dovish advocate for aggressive rate cuts; Kevin Walsh, who supports rate cuts but has a unique view on "anti-quantitative easing"; Waller, who is data-dependent and supports cautious rate cuts; and Rick Reed, who emphasizes the limited effectiveness of interest rate tools [6] Group 2 - The U.S. plans to impose a 10% tariff on certain European goods starting February 1, with potential increases over time, raising questions about how these tariffs will coexist with existing trade agreements [8][9] - The legal basis for these tariffs, invoked under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, is currently under scrutiny, with implications for fiscal revenue and potential increases in the national debt supply if tariffs cannot be implemented [9][10] - The dollar is facing multiple pressures, including a potential loss of institutional credibility due to the Fed's independence being compromised, leading to a 9% depreciation over the past 12 months [10][11] - Gold is positioned as a primary beneficiary in the current environment, supported by the Fed's independence crisis, a weakening dollar, geopolitical tensions, and rising inflation expectations, with central banks increasingly viewing gold as a stable reserve asset [12][13] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown signs of volatility after a period of activity, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizing the need to maintain market stability and prevent large fluctuations [2][13] - There is a notable internal structural divergence in the market, with previously popular themes like AI applications and commercial aerospace showing signs of retreat, while large-cap stocks may outperform in the short term [13] - Growth styles are currently favored over value styles, with significant deviations from historical norms, suggesting that while growth may remain strong, volatility could increase, prompting a balanced approach to investment [13]