有色矿业回踩10日均线，休整还是熄火？

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector, which has been one of the strongest tracks, has recently experienced a decline, with the non-ferrous metal mining ETF (159690) dropping over 3% before stabilizing around the 10-day moving average, indicating potential support at this level [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal mining ETF has shown a significant increase of 117.91% over the past year, highlighting its strong investment value [6]. - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme Index has led with an annual increase of 104.84% in 2025, outperforming other similar indices [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Strong demand is supported by data from the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating that China's cumulative production of electrolytic aluminum reached 45.02 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the cumulative production of ten non-ferrous metals was 81.75 million tons, up 3.9% year-on-year [4]. - Supply constraints are evident as global copper mine capital expenditures have declined for five consecutive years, limiting supply elasticity, while emerging demands from new industries like renewable energy and AI continue to grow [4]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - A joint policy document from eight departments outlines a growth plan for the non-ferrous metal industry, targeting an average annual growth of about 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026, providing a policy boost for industry expansion [5]. - The monetary environment is favorable, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a weaker dollar and reduced holding costs for non-ferrous metals [5].