长城证券：基本金属价格震荡调整 维持有色金属行业“强于大市”评级

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns driving the strategic status of metals [1] - The global base metals market is undergoing a structural reshaping of supply and demand dynamics, with strong and sustained demand from green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [1] - Supply constraints are becoming more rigid due to long-term investment shortages, declining resource grades, and extended project production cycles [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.5 million tons, reaching 44.25 million tons, with industry profitability exceeding 6,000 RMB per ton [2] - High aluminum prices are suppressing demand, leading to an increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventory by 39,000 tons [2] Group 3: Alumina Market - The alumina market continues to experience inventory accumulation, with weekly operating capacity at 96.25 million tons, an increase of 40 tons [3] - Inventory levels are at historical highs, with a weekly increase of 75,000 tons, and profit margins are negative, with losses expanding to -186 RMB per ton based on domestic ore prices [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and production cuts at mines, with the copper concentrate processing fee declining to -46.53 USD per ton [4] - The operating rate of major copper rod enterprises increased to 57.47%, while global copper inventory rose to 1.0874 million tons, an increase of 77,800 tons week-on-week [4] Group 5: Zinc Market - The zinc market shows weak consumption with visible inventory accumulation, as the galvanizing operating rate recorded 53.48%, a decrease of 0.91% [5] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory remains stable at 118,400 tons, while LME inventory is at 106,500 tons, showing minimal change [5]