CATL(SZ:300750) Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang·2026-01-20 03:40Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant volatility due to supply-side disruptions and renewed concerns about supply stability, particularly related to the uncertain resumption of the Ningde Times lithium mine [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The resumption of the Ningde Times Jiangxi mine remains uncertain, leading to market speculation about supply stability [1]. - Recent policy changes, including a reduction in export tax rebates for battery products, are expected to drive short-term demand for lithium carbonate as companies rush to export [2]. - The supply side is tightening, with the Ningde Times mine's production halt since August 2025 and the cancellation of mining rights in Jiangxi, contributing to increased monthly supply gaps [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by high sensitivity to sentiment, with recent price fluctuations reflecting speculative trading behavior [1]. - Despite recent price drops, downstream demand for replenishment has increased, particularly as prices stabilize at lower levels [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions indicate a tendency for prices to rise rather than fall, supported by low inventory levels among downstream companies and speculative demand [2]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Management Measures - The trading environment for lithium carbonate futures has prompted regulatory adjustments, including changes to trading fees and margin requirements to manage volatility [3]. - The futures exchange has implemented measures to adjust the price fluctuation limits and margin standards to mitigate risks associated with speculative trading [3].