财通证券：汽车销量走弱来自政策的不及预期 关注高端化智能化主线

Core Viewpoint - The passenger car market and new energy vehicle market are showing weak performance due to market policies, but the overall vehicle sector is believed to have bottomed out after multiple adjustments. The company maintains its existing vehicle strategy and suggests focusing on three structural directions: high-end, intelligent, and overseas expansion [1][3]. Market Performance - From January 1 to 11, 2026, nationwide retail sales of passenger cars reached 328,000 units, representing a year-on-year and month-on-month decline of 32% and 42%, respectively. Among these, new energy vehicle sales were 117,000 units, with a year-on-year and month-on-month drop of 38% and 67%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles stands at 35.5% [2]. Demand Weakness Analysis - The decline in sales is attributed to policies falling short of expectations. The reduction in purchase tax and the proportional subsidy have increased costs for consumers in the mid-to-low-end market, leading to a stronger wait-and-see sentiment among buyers. This has resulted in a shift back to traditional fuel vehicles, with anticipated demand in January not materializing. The effectiveness of the subsidy policy appears weak at this time [3]. Market Dynamics - Weak demand for passenger cars may not necessarily be negative, as it could clarify the competitive landscape in the mid-to-low-end market. The current market is characterized by a high preference for cost-effectiveness, and the focus remains on the new car cycle. The market is currently in a low season with fewer new car launches, but a wave of new car releases is expected around late April during the Beijing Auto Show [4]. Investment Recommendations - High-end Focus: Given the weak performance in the mid-to-low-end market, the company recommends selecting firms with structural beta and a clear high-end path, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Xiaomi Group, while paying attention to the new car cycle of BAIC Blue Valley [5]. - Intelligent Development: Intelligent technology is seen as a necessary path for the next phase of the automotive industry, with a core recommendation for XPeng Motors, focusing on opportunities related to new valuations [5]. - Overseas Expansion: Although the process of overseas expansion is lengthy, opportunities still exist, with BYD being a key recommendation, particularly regarding its overseas progress and potential profit contributions [5].