销量下跌？利润收缩？AI战决高下！6大国际咨询机构投行2026汽车业展望

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market closed 2025 with strong figures, including over 34 million vehicles produced and sold, with passenger cars exceeding 30 million and new energy vehicles surpassing 16 million [2] - As 2026 begins, the industry faces intensified competition and a sense of urgency to address "involution" in the market, prompting a need for long-term development strategies amidst uncertainties [2] Group 1: Industry Trends and Challenges - Roland Berger identifies six major trends for 2026, including accelerated elimination of weaker players, a shift towards full-chain capabilities, and a focus on internationalization and capital competition [3][4] - The transition from quantity to quality growth is emphasized, with a focus on cost competitiveness and engineering efficiency as key survival strategies for automakers [8] - The automotive industry is expected to face challenges from tightening policies, rising material costs, and the need for improved product quality amidst competitive pressures [5][13] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Projections - UBS forecasts a slight decline in wholesale and retail sales in 2026, with a focus on overseas expansion as a growth strategy for automakers [5] - Deloitte predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will plateau around 60%, shifting the focus of automakers from market share to cost control and operational efficiency [8] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that overseas markets will drive growth, with expectations of significant increases in vehicle exports, particularly in the new energy segment [12] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The year 2026 is seen as pivotal for advancements in solid-state batteries and the integration of AI technologies in vehicles, with a focus on creating scalable and sustainable systems [4][8] - The development of Robotaxi services is expected to transition from niche to mainstream, indicating a significant shift in the automotive landscape [6] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Companies are advised to enhance their supply chain management and localize operations to better compete in international markets [10][12] - Emphasis is placed on improving product quality and consumer engagement to navigate the challenges posed by tightening policies and competitive pressures [14]