“木头姐”的2026展望：“里根经济学”升级版，美股继续“黄金时代”，美元走高压制黄金

Group 1 - Cathie Wood predicts a "golden age" for the US stock market driven by deregulation, tax cuts, sound monetary policy, and innovative technologies, referring to it as "Reaganomics on steroids" [1][2] - The US economy is currently in a "coiled spring" state, having experienced a rolling recession, but is expected to rebound strongly in the coming years [2][4] - Wood forecasts nominal GDP growth rates of 6% to 8% in the next few years, primarily driven by productivity improvements rather than inflation [2][28] Group 2 - The effective corporate tax rate is expected to drop to around 10%, providing significant policy benefits for economic growth [2][14] - Inflation is anticipated to be controlled and may even turn negative, with Wood suggesting that productivity growth will play a crucial role in this [2][16][22] - The housing market has seen a significant decline in sales, with existing home sales dropping 40% from January 2021 to October 2023, indicating a tightly compressed economic environment [5][20] Group 3 - Wood does not believe an AI bubble has formed, arguing that high price-to-earnings ratios will be offset by earnings growth driven by technological advancements [2][43] - The investment in AI and digital assets is expected to lead to a substantial increase in capital expenditures, with data center investments projected to grow significantly [37][39] - The dollar is expected to strengthen significantly, similar to the trends seen in the early 1980s, as US investment returns improve relative to other regions [35][2]