Ge Long Hui·2026-01-20 04:36Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 195.4 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [1] - Value-added services are projected to generate 90.9 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 15% [1] - Within value-added services, the gaming sector is anticipated to reach 59.3 billion yuan, growing by 21% year-over-year, while social networking is expected to generate 31.6 billion yuan, up by 6% [1] - Online advertising revenue is forecasted at 40.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth [1] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to generate 61.9 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 10% [1] - The gross margin is projected to be 20%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-over-year, resulting in a gross profit of 108.7 billion yuan, up by 20% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be 70 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-over-year, with a non-IFRS net profit of 65.1 billion yuan, also up by 18% [1] Gaming Sector - Revenue from gaming is expected to grow by 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with domestic and overseas markets growing by 17% and 28% respectively [1] - Domestic evergreen games are performing steadily, with shooting games showing strong performance, particularly titles like "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" contributing to revenue growth [1] - Several key new games are set to launch in Q1 2026, indicating strong future growth potential in the gaming sector [1] - Overseas, Supercell's "Clash Royale" continues to generate high revenue, and the AAA game "Dying Light: The Beast" is performing strongly, supporting sustained high growth in overseas gaming [1] Marketing Services - Revenue from marketing services is projected to grow by 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with the WeChat ecosystem advertising being the main growth driver [2] - The performance of video accounts and search ads remains strong, benefiting from enhanced advertising efficiency and conversion rates due to the synergy of content ecology and AI capabilities [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with stable payment business and double-digit growth in wealth management and micro-loan services [2] - Cloud business is anticipated to exceed 20% year-over-year growth, with WeChat's small store e-commerce technology service fees continuing to contribute to revenue [2] - Recent organizational adjustments in AI business aim to enhance the efficiency of large model development, with WeChat officially launching an AI mini-program developer growth plan [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is adjusting its profit expectations, forecasting revenues of 752.8 billion yuan, 847.5 billion yuan, and 931.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 260 billion yuan, 299.2 billion yuan, and 338.4 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding Non-IFRS EPS of 29, 33, and 37 yuan [2] - Based on the SOTP valuation method, the target market value for Tencent Holdings' various businesses in 2026 is set at 6.5 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]