专家说出实话：上海、深圳等一线城市，出现4大怪象，提前准备！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in social behavior and economic conditions in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, highlighting the increasing trends of young people choosing not to marry or have children, the challenging job market, rising traffic congestion, and exorbitant housing prices. Group 1: Marriage and Birth Rates - The marriage rate in China has declined from approximately 9‰ in 2015 to around 4.3‰ in 2024, while the birth rate has dropped from 11.99‰ in 2015 to 6.77‰ in 2024, indicating a rising trend of "non-marriage and non-childbearing" among the post-90s and post-00s generations [5][8]. - The high cost of housing and raising children in first-tier cities is a significant deterrent for young people considering marriage and parenthood [11][13]. - Parents from the 70s and 80s are becoming less insistent on their children marrying and having children, recognizing the pressures faced by the younger generation [15][17]. Group 2: Employment Challenges - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 once exceeded 20%, marking a historical high, reflecting the increasing difficulty for young people to find jobs [20][22]. - The number of college graduates has consistently surpassed 10 million annually, leading to an oversupply in the job market, while traditional industries are contracting and new technologies like AI are replacing certain jobs [22][24]. - Young job seekers often face challenges such as unresponsive job applications and low salary offers, contributing to a sense of instability in employment [24]. Group 3: Traffic Congestion - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing severe traffic congestion, with the number of registered vehicles in Shanghai nearing 5.9 million, while road infrastructure has not expanded correspondingly [33][35]. - Average commuting times in Shenzhen are around 36 minutes, but many residents experience over an hour of travel each way, highlighting the daily struggles with traffic [37]. - Cities are implementing technological solutions to alleviate congestion, such as AI traffic management systems, but individuals are advised to consider their commuting choices to improve their quality of life [39][41]. Group 4: Housing Prices - Housing prices in first-tier cities remain extremely high, with average prices in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai reaching 30,000 yuan per square meter or more [43][45]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in many first-tier cities exceeds reasonable levels, with Shenzhen's ratio approaching 30, indicating that ordinary families would need to save for decades to afford a home [47]. - The rental yield for residential properties in these cities is generally below 2%, suggesting that property values are primarily driven by appreciation expectations rather than actual rental income [48].