Solar(US:CSIQ) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-20 06:03Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for certain products, including photovoltaic (PV) products, effective April 1, 2026, marking a significant policy adjustment that has raised concerns across the industry chain [1][2] Policy Adjustment - The adjustment specifically targets the export of PV products, including monocrystalline silicon wafers, solar cells, and PV modules, which are primarily affected by the policy change [2] - The previous reduction of the export rebate rate from 13% to 9% in December 2024 is part of a broader trend of tightening export rebate policies amid declining global PV prices and increasing competition [2][3] Cost Impact - The cancellation of approximately 9% export rebate is expected to increase the cost of PV products by 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per watt, necessitating a price adjustment to maintain reasonable profit margins [3] - The policy change is anticipated to directly impact the pricing structure, order composition, and profit models of companies in the industry [3] Market Reaction - A three-month transition period has been established, leading to expectations of a surge in PV product exports before the new policy takes effect, with some companies accelerating production and signing contracts to mitigate cost pressures [4] - Research institutions predict a potential doubling of battery module exports in the first quarter of 2026 as companies rush to capitalize on the policy window [4][5] Industry Dynamics - The current trend shows a divergence between the export volume and export value of PV products, with significant growth in volume but a 13.2% decline in total export value to $24.42 billion in the first ten months of 2025 [5] - The policy aims to guide the industry away from low-price competition and towards high-quality development, addressing the issues of price erosion and international trade friction [6][7] Long-term Implications - The adjustment is seen as a means to encourage the PV industry to move beyond low-cost competition and to promote higher quality and sustainable growth [7][8] - The cancellation of export rebates is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, benefiting companies with premium capabilities while pressuring low-margin firms to exit the market [8]