startrader：印度央行或区间抛美元 守护卢比91关口

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars to curb the depreciation of the Indian Rupee, reflecting the pressures from both internal and external factors [1][3]. Group 1: RBI's Intervention Strategy - The RBI plans to sell dollars in the range of 91.02 to 91.05 to stabilize the Rupee, which has recently hit a two-month low due to a strong US dollar and foreign capital outflows [3][4]. - The intervention range of 91.02 to 91.05 is critical for the Rupee and has been a reference point for previous RBI interventions, indicating the central bank's commitment to defend the 90 level [3][4]. - The RBI's actions are aimed at balancing exchange rate volatility with economic growth, as a breach of the 91.05 level could lead to imported inflation, particularly affecting energy costs [3][4]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Reserves - India's foreign exchange reserves have increased to $687 billion as of January 9, providing a solid foundation for the RBI's intervention, despite a recent drop due to dollar sales [4]. - The current reserves are sufficient to cover nearly 12 months of import needs, indicating a strong position in terms of international safety levels [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the effectiveness of the RBI's intervention, with some analysts believing that it may not fundamentally change the Rupee's trajectory if external conditions do not improve [4][5]. - Optimistic views suggest that the RBI's clear intervention strategy could stabilize market expectations and prevent panic selling, especially given the robust domestic economic fundamentals [5]. - Key variables influencing future trends include the US Federal Reserve's policy direction, the progress of US-India trade negotiations, and the RBI's intervention pace, all of which will determine whether the Rupee can maintain the critical 91 level [6].