高盛维持A股“慢牛”预判，上涨动力切换为盈利驱动

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend since the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through significant psychological barriers, although recent signals indicate a cooling in the margin trading market and a decline in previously popular concept stocks [1][2] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market, predicting a continuation of a "slow bull" market, contrasting it with the "crazy bull" market of 2015, citing healthier market conditions and quick policy adjustments if overheating occurs [1][3] Investor Sentiment and Capital Inflow - Goldman Sachs' model indicates that both individual and institutional investors have increased their valuation preferences, but overall investor sentiment has not reached overheating levels [3][4] - The firm forecasts over 3 trillion RMB in new domestic capital inflows into the stock market in 2026, including approximately 2 trillion from individual investors and over 1 trillion from institutional investors [1][4] Economic Growth and Exports - Goldman Sachs' chief economist predicts that exports will remain a core driver of economic growth in 2026, with an expected annual growth rate of 5% to 6% for the next few years [1][7] - The GDP for 2025 is estimated at 140 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, while 2026 is projected to see a GDP growth rate of 4.8%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [7][8] Sector Performance and Investment Trends - The market's upward momentum is expected to shift from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth, with corporate profit growth projected to accelerate from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027 [4][8] - Goldman Sachs highlights a positive outlook for AI-related sectors and has upgraded hardware stocks to a high allocation, while favoring service sectors in consumer areas and focusing on materials in cyclical sectors [4][6] Foreign Investment and Market Dynamics - Despite a strong start to the year, foreign capital has not yet entered the market on a large scale, although interest from overseas investors has increased [4][5] - The firm anticipates that global bullish investors may narrow their underweight positions in Chinese stocks, potentially leading to an additional 10 billion RMB in buying [5]