水井坊业绩还在下挫，谁会成为接盘者？

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang's 2025 performance is expected to decline significantly due to the deep adjustment phase in the liquor industry, with net profit projected to decrease by 71% and revenue by 42% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 39,185 million yuan for 2025, down 94,918 million yuan year-on-year [1]. - Expected operating revenue for 2025 is 303,776 million yuan, a decrease of 217,900 million yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment phase influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, leading to a slow recovery in traditional consumption scenarios [1][2]. - High inventory levels across the industry are contributing to the performance decline [1]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on maintaining channel health, optimizing market structure, and sustaining long-term investments in response to external changes [1][2]. - Measures include controlling shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and implementing policies to stabilize pricing and boost channel confidence [2]. Group 4: Parent Company Insights - As the only A-share listed liquor company controlled by foreign capital, Water Jiufang's performance is also viewed in the context of its parent company, Diageo, which is facing growth pressures [2][3]. - Diageo's organic net sales decreased by 0.6% in the 2024 fiscal year, with a slight increase of 1.7% in 2025, but operating profit still declined [2][3]. Group 5: Market Speculation - Speculation exists regarding Diageo potentially adjusting its Chinese liquor assets, including the sale of Water Jiufang, although no decisions have been made [3]. - Discussions about potential buyers for Water Jiufang include various companies and capital with experience in liquor or fast-moving consumer goods [3].