Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-20 06:49Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that China Bank (601988) will experience absolute stock price appreciation but may underperform the market by 2026 [1] Group 1: Bank Ratings - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Minsheng Bank (600016) from "Neutral" to "Overweight" [1] - The rating of Agricultural Bank (601288) was downgraded from "Overweight" to "Neutral" [1] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Growth Expectations - Approximately 110 trillion RMB of fixed-term deposits are expected to mature by 2026, including around 7 trillion RMB of excess household savings, which may provide liquidity support to the capital market and boost market performance [1] - The recovery of net interest income and wealth management fees is expected to lead to moderate improvements in revenue and profit growth for domestic banks in 2026 [1] Group 3: Stock Performance Preferences - In the context of high dividend stocks, Morgan Stanley prefers Bank of Communications (601328), China Bank (03988), and China Construction Bank (601939) [1] - Banks such as Ningbo Bank (002142), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000), Industrial Bank (601166), and China Merchants Bank (600036) are seen as having better growth potential [1] - Growth-oriented stocks are expected to outperform high dividend stocks [1]