国金证券：国内扩产周期进入尾声 PVC供需格局有望迎来改善

Core Viewpoint - The PVC industry in China is currently facing significant loss pressures, and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to the accelerated exit of high-cost small and medium-sized capacities, potentially improving the supply-demand balance and allowing for gradual recovery in PVC prices and industry profitability. Companies with large PVC production capacities and integrated industrial chain layouts are recommended for attention [1]. Supply Side - The domestic PVC capacity expansion phase is nearing its end, with high-cost pressures leading to the exit of overseas capacities. From 2018 to 2025, domestic PVC capacity is expected to grow from 24.9 million tons to 30.38 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.9%, and production is projected to increase from 19.36 million tons to 23.94 million tons, with a CAGR of about 3.1%. No new domestic PVC capacities are planned for 2026, with new capacity mainly concentrated in the first half of 2027 and 2028, all of which will be ethylene-based [1][2]. Price and Profitability - Since 2022, the domestic acetylene-based PVC market price has entered a downward cycle, reaching a low of 4,290 yuan/ton in mid-December 2025, the lowest since 2005. Although prices have slightly rebounded since late December 2025, they remain at the bottom 1% of historical levels. The PVC and caustic soda sectors have been operating at a loss since the second half of 2022, indicating significant operational pressure on production companies. The continued losses may force high-cost PVC enterprises without integrated industrial layouts to exit, optimizing the industry structure [2][3]. Demand Side - The demand from the real estate sector is under pressure, with PVC products primarily used in the later stages of construction. The completion area of residential buildings in China for 2023, 2024, and 2025 is projected to be 998 million, 737 million, and 395 million square meters, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +17%, -28%, and -18%. However, the demand for soft PVC products remains relatively strong, with a high operating rate. Exports are expected to provide some support, with a CAGR of 39% from 2019 to 2024, and approximately 3.51 million tons of PVC exported in the first 11 months of 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase. The export volume to India has significantly increased, indicating a growing reliance on imports due to domestic supply shortages [3][4]. Inventory Outlook - Based on relevant assumptions and calculations, inventory accumulation is expected to continue from 2026 to 2028, but the rate of increase is anticipated to slow significantly compared to 2023-2025. The overall loss pressures in the domestic PVC industry and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to the accelerated exit of high-cost small and medium-sized capacities [4].