Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Kedi-B (02487) has declined by 35.88% in 2025 and has not yet found a way to rebound in 2026, despite a year-to-date increase of over 7% as of January 19, 2026, primarily due to a low base from a significant drop at the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - Kedi's stock price experienced a significant drop of 5.02% on the last trading day of 2025, closing at 4.54 HKD, which contributed to the favorable year-to-date performance in 2026 [1] - The announcement of positive Phase III clinical trial results for CU-20101 (injectable type A botulinum toxin) on January 19, 2026, led to a temporary increase in stock price, indicating potential stabilization [1] - Following its removal from the Hong Kong Stock Connect list in March 2025, Kedi's stock price fell to a low of 3.64 HKD, but rebounded significantly after the release of its annual report in April 2025, showcasing strong fundamentals [2] Group 2: Shareholding and Liquidity Issues - After being removed from the Stock Connect, Kedi's shareholding by Stock Connect funds decreased from 10.09% to 2.29% by January 16, 2026, indicating a significant outflow of funds [2][3] - The accelerated outflow of Stock Connect funds has reduced selling pressure but has also led to a noticeable decline in liquidity for Kedi [5] - Kedi's trading volume has significantly decreased, with only four trading days exceeding 1 million shares in the past four and a half months, contrasting sharply with the previous year's performance [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Prospects - Kedi's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 30.6% to approximately 66.3 million HKD, with a net loss of about 239 million HKD, reflecting challenges due to strategic changes and the termination of a partnership with a U.S. skincare brand [8] - The company plans to issue 28.9 million shares at a price of 8.40 HKD each to raise approximately 240 million HKD, with 45% of the proceeds allocated for the commercialization of new products CU-40102 and CU-10201 [8] - Market forecasts suggest that CU-40102 could generate over 100 million HKD in its first full year, with peak sales potential estimated between 1 billion to 2 billion HKD, while CU-10201 is expected to reach 50 million HKD with peak sales of 500 million to 1 billion HKD [9] Group 4: Clinical Trial Results and Competitive Landscape - The clinical trial results for CU-20101 showed efficacy comparable to BOTOX®, meeting non-inferiority standards, and demonstrated good safety profiles without serious adverse events [12] - The competitive landscape for botulinum toxin products in China includes established players like Allergan's BOTOX® and Lanzhou Biological's Hengli, which dominate the market, making Kedi's entry into this space uncertain [13]
出通10个月流动性问题显现，研发利好能否推动科笛-B(02487)止跌？