摩根大通：别慌！格陵兰岛危机可能在达沃斯就会解决

Core Viewpoint - Despite market volatility surrounding the Greenland issue and potential tariffs from the U.S. on certain EU countries, JPMorgan remains cautiously optimistic, believing that the current chaos will ultimately de-escalate into a "negotiated arrangement" rather than evolve into a full-blown crisis [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - JPMorgan's International Market Intelligence team suggests interpreting the current market turmoil from the perspective of "the art of negotiation," with the U.S. adopting a tough stance to trigger negotiations and create leverage [1]. - The firm notes that the EU's response, including potential retaliatory tariffs and warnings about the impact on the U.S.-EU trade agreement, is more of a strategic posturing than a genuine threat [1]. - Analyst Federico Manicardi believes that the situation is not fundamentally difficult to resolve, with a potential solution emerging during the upcoming World Economic Forum (WEF) [1][3]. Group 2: Risk Assessment and Predictions - JPMorgan has ruled out extreme scenarios that could arise from the Greenland situation, such as the sale of Greenland or an invasion, deeming them highly unlikely due to the complexities involved and the unpopularity of such actions among voters [3]. - The firm has identified key catalysts for investors to watch, including President Trump's speech scheduled for January 21 at the WEF, which may focus on potential candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair and issues of affordability [3]. - On a macro level, JPMorgan observes a strong start to the year, with industries and regions in a leading position, and investors anticipating an economic reboot by 2026 [3].