3 6 Ke·2026-01-20 07:22Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing its worst start to the year since 2022, with a 15% decline following an 11% drop last year, raising concerns about future growth prospects due to emerging AI competition [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - A group of Software as a Service (SaaS) stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has seen a significant downturn, marking the worst annual opening since 2022 [1]. - Intuit Inc., the parent company of TurboTax, experienced a 16% drop, while Adobe and Salesforce saw declines exceeding 11% [3]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is nearing historical highs, yet companies like ServiceNow Inc. are at multi-year lows, highlighting a widening gap in performance within the tech sector [9]. Group 2: AI Competition - The launch of Anthropic's AI collaboration tool "Claude Cowork" has intensified fears of disruptive competition in the software market, reminiscent of concerns from 2025 [3][8]. - Claude Cowork allows users to automate tasks such as creating spreadsheets and generating reports, significantly enhancing productivity for both programmers and non-programmers [4][6]. - The tool's rapid adoption has led to a notable increase in its user base, with a 12% rise in global daily active users since last month [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Many investors are losing confidence in holding software stocks, believing there are no catalysts for valuation recovery despite lower price multiples [8]. - Concerns about the attractiveness of AI products from established software companies are growing, as many have not demonstrated significant revenue impact from their AI offerings [9]. - The expected profit growth for software and services companies in the S&P 500 is projected to slow to 14% in 2026, down from an estimated 19% in 2025 [9]. Group 4: Valuation Trends - Software companies are seeing their valuations decline, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, the lowest in history compared to an average of over 55 times in the past decade [10]. - The traditional high valuation of software companies, based on subscription models and recurring revenue, is being challenged by the emergence of AI agents capable of performing tasks more efficiently [13].