ATFX：避险情绪主导市场，黄金在多重不确定性下持续刷新历史高位

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point in global financial markets, with international gold prices driven by risk sentiment, reaching historical highs near $4720, reflecting a "risk-driven rally" due to multiple uncertainties [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks have intensified, with U.S. President Trump reiterating threats of tariffs against European allies, potentially starting from February 1, which has raised concerns about renewed transatlantic trade tensions [1] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated, with Russia launching drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to widespread power outages during a critical winter period, heightening energy security concerns in Europe [1] Financial Conditions - A weakening U.S. dollar has provided crucial financial support for rising gold prices, as international funds are reducing their allocation to U.S. assets amid trade tensions and political uncertainties [2] - Despite discussions around the Federal Reserve's leadership and a reduction in aggressive rate cut expectations for 2026, the dollar index has declined, diminishing the dollar's appeal as a safe haven [2] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a clear and stable upward channel, with prices consistently rising above the channel's midline, indicating strong bullish momentum [2] - The price has recently broken through previous consolidation ranges and is now testing resistance around $4709–$4720, which is a critical battleground for bulls and bears [2] Future Outlook - If gold prices can effectively absorb selling pressure above $4700 and complete horizontal consolidation, there is potential for a further push towards the $4816 resistance level [3] - The upcoming U.S. PCE price index and related macro data will be pivotal, as they are closely watched by the Federal Reserve and will directly impact market interest rate expectations and the dollar's trajectory [3] - Overall, the current rise in gold prices reflects increased global uncertainty rather than solely economic fundamentals or interest rate logic, with gold's safe-haven attributes likely to be re-evaluated until clear signals of easing geopolitical tensions emerge [3]