国金证券：大厂算力投入将进入白热化阶段 智算中心国产替代有望加速

Core Insights - The competition for AI entry points is fundamentally a battle for traffic, directly impacting the advertising and e-commerce fundamentals of large internet companies, with significant investments expected in AI model and application capabilities by 2026 [1][2] Group 1: AI Competition and Investment - Major internet companies are increasing their investment in AI as the competition for entry points intensifies [1] - The emergence of new reasoning models has unlocked approximately 10 times the computational potential compared to traditional models, shifting the demand from solely "training-driven" to a "dual-driven" model of both training and reasoning [1][2] Group 2: Domestic Chip Development - The scale of China's intelligent computing power is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 57% from 2020 to 2028, with domestic GPU capabilities improving significantly [3] - Domestic chip manufacturers are narrowing the performance gap with international giants, supported by high capacity utilization rates from local foundries like SMIC [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for AI reasoning is expected to surge as AI applications in smartphones and other terminals reach critical mass, with policy initiatives driving hardware upgrades towards more efficient and energy-saving solutions [4] - Domestic CSP vendors are accelerating the adaptation of local GPUs, while increased restrictions on overseas cloud computing power are likely to expedite the domestic replacement process [4]