Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-20 07:49Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry has not yet passed its worst period, with excess supply and the reopening of the Red Sea route likely leading to EBIT losses in 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Bank of America Securities predicts that the first half of 2026 will be negatively impacted by a significant increase in vessel supply [1] - The second half of 2026 is expected to face increasing pressure from the anticipated reopening of the Red Sea route [1] - The expected losses will likely lead shipping companies to reduce shareholder returns in 2026 to preserve cash during the downturn [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - The bank maintains a "underperform" rating for COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919), Orient Overseas International (00316), and Evergreen Marine (2603.TW) [1] - A "neutral" rating is maintained for Japanese shipping companies due to current valuations being above historical lows [1] Group 3: Risks and Monitoring - Close attention is required regarding negative news related to the restoration of the Red Sea route [1] - There is a risk of further declines in spot freight rates as port congestion eases and seasonal factors diminish [1]