Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-20 08:01Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is cautious optimism regarding the growth of Hainan's duty-free sales, driven by healthy inbound tourism and increased consumption of high-priced items [1] - The expert predicts that inbound tourism will continue to grow, with an increase in spending on high-ticket items such as clothing and more 3C products [1] - The expert expresses concern that the distribution of consumption vouchers may slow down, as evidenced by recent trends in Sanya [1] Group 2 - The competitive landscape remains relatively stable, with China Duty Free Group (601888) expected to maintain a market share of 70% to 80% [1] - The expert believes that new entrants to the duty-free market are unlikely in the next 2 to 3 years, and an independent tariff system will help attract more investment over time [1] - China Duty Free Group continues to win through product variety and inventory, offering more bundled packages rather than aggressive price discounts [2] - Goldman Sachs will focus on the profit margin trends in China Duty Free Group's upcoming preliminary results for Q4 2024 to assess their impact on overall profitability [2]