LIHUA(SZ:300761) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-01-20 08:01Core Viewpoint - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ) expects a significant decline of over 60% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025, primarily due to cyclical price fluctuations in the poultry and pork markets, despite a notable improvement in Q4 performance [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 550 million to 600 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 60.55% to 63.84% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 530 million and 590 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 61.04% to 65.00% year-on-year [1] - In Q4, the company is estimated to achieve a net profit of 263 million to 313 million yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 90.58% to 126.81% [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold 567 million meat chickens during the reporting period, up from 516 million in the previous year, but the average selling price for meat chickens dropped by 11.90% to 11.40 yuan per kilogram [2] - The meat pig business also faced challenges, with sales of 2.1116 million pigs, an increase from 1.298 million the previous year, while the average selling price fell by approximately 19.94% to 13.85 yuan per kilogram [2] - The company has successfully expanded its fresh chicken product line, projecting to process about 90 million fresh meat chickens in 2025, a 50% increase from 60 million in 2024 [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the yellow feather chicken industry will trend towards greater scale and increased concentration by 2026, with moderate price recovery supported by capacity reduction and steady demand [2] - The company reported that its complete cost for meat chickens was approximately 11.4 yuan per kilogram in Q3, while the complete cost for meat pigs was 12.3 yuan per kilogram, positioning it among the top tier in the industry [2]