黄金vs.“数字黄金”：特朗普2.0时代比特币的市场定位

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 and Trump's proposal for a Bitcoin reserve have transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a mainstream recognized asset class, referred to as "digital gold" by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Evolution and Market Positioning - The Trump administration is accelerating Bitcoin's transition from a retail-driven speculative tool to an institutionally recognized asset class, altering its hedging characteristics [2][4]. - The study examines Bitcoin's hedging properties compared to gold during different crisis periods, particularly focusing on the evolution of Bitcoin's hedging features in the Trump 2.0 era [5][6]. - Prior to Trump 2.0, Bitcoin and gold exhibited similar hedging characteristics primarily during mid-term crises, but this similarity has diminished in the Trump 2.0 period, with Bitcoin showing increased correlation with the market [6][21]. Group 2: Methodology and Data Analysis - The research utilizes frequency domain decomposition and quantile Granger causality tests to analyze Bitcoin's hedging properties over time, providing new empirical evidence on its behavior under different market conditions [6][12][13]. - Data from March 2015 to May 2025 was collected, focusing on the significant growth and stability of the cryptocurrency market post-2015, ensuring reliability in comparisons with traditional financial assets [12][13]. Group 3: Risk Transmission and Hedging Properties - The results indicate that Bitcoin has the lowest risk transmission levels among various assets, suggesting its potential as a diversification investment [19][20]. - In the Trump 2.0 era, the risk transmission structure has changed significantly, with an overall increase in sensitivity to policy and geopolitical shocks, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market [21][22]. - Bitcoin's hedging properties are context-dependent, showing potential as a hedging asset during specific crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Silicon Valley Bank collapse [24][26]. Group 4: Implications for Investors and Policymakers - The findings suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from a quasi-hedging asset to a high-risk growth asset, indicating that it may no longer be suitable for long-term hedging against traditional risk assets [31][34]. - For investors, it is crucial to recognize the dynamic changes in Bitcoin's hedging attributes and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly, especially in the context of increasing correlation with mainstream assets [34]. - Policymakers should enhance monitoring and regulation of the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, given the increased risk transmission observed in the Trump 2.0 era [23][34].