日债史诗级崩盘，华尔街：日本央行要“紧急救市”了？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a historic sell-off, with long-term bond yields reaching record levels due to investor fears over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's aggressive fiscal expansion plans and the associated inflation risks [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 26.5 basis points to 3.875%, while the 40-year yield increased by 27 basis points to 4.215%, both hitting all-time highs [1]. - The sell-off was triggered by the government's promise to cut food consumption tax without specifying funding sources, raising concerns about fiscal discipline and government spending [1][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The bond market turmoil is affecting stock and foreign exchange markets, putting significant pressure on the Bank of Japan [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan may need to accelerate interest rate hikes or initiate emergency bond purchases to stabilize the market [4][6]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The current market turmoil is driven by fears of "unfunded fiscal stimulus," with analysts noting a lack of clarity on how the proposed tax cuts will be financed [5]. - The market's reaction indicates confusion and surprise over the government's announcement, leading to uncontrolled rises in interest rates [5]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Challenges - The prevailing fiscal situation is perceived as making the Bank of Japan's monetary policy too loose, with calls for more aggressive rate hikes [7]. - Current market pricing suggests that two rate hikes are insufficient, with some analysts arguing that four hikes may be necessary given the inflation rate of 3% and wage growth of 5% [7].