黄金暴涨至4691美元！华尔街巨头却在悄悄撤退？三大信号预警历史性转折

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a divergence between retail investors and institutional players in the gold market, with retail investors increasing their positions while major institutions like BlackRock and Bridgewater are reducing their holdings [1][3]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive months, reaching a record total of 3,932 tons, but retail investors account for 78% of the holdings, indicating a potential risk in the market structure [3]. - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target for gold to $5,000, acknowledging that current gold prices have already priced in future Federal Reserve rate cuts, while also noting a 17% drop in COMEX gold futures open interest, suggesting profit-taking by smart money [5]. Group 2 - The contrasting strategies of Warren Buffett and Peter Schiff illustrate a fundamental disagreement regarding the monetary system, with Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reporting an 11% decline in its Newmont Mining stock, while Schiff's firm increased its holdings in silver ETFs by 32% [6]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted, with the anticipated rate cut for 2024 reduced from 150 basis points to 75 basis points, while inflation swap contracts suggest a long-term inflation target of 3.2%, contributing to a 42% surge in the gold volatility index (GVZ) [8]. - Historical data indicates that when gold prices increase by over 50% in a year, there is a 67% probability of a subsequent 20% correction within the following 12 months, with central bank gold purchases declining by 29% in November, signaling caution for investors [10].