China National Gold (SH:600916) Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun·2026-01-20 09:11Group 1: Gold Price and Retail Performance - International gold prices have surged over 60% in the past year, leading to record high domestic gold prices and increased retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector, with retail sales expected to reach 373.6 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 12.8% [1] - Despite the overall increase in retail sales, the actual sales volume for enterprises remains under pressure, as the rise in gold prices has limited consumer purchasing behavior, particularly for non-essential items [2][3] - Domestic gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 32.5% [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) reported a revenue of 38.99 billion HKD for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, a decline of approximately 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased slightly by 0.16% [4] - Mengjin Garden (02585.HK) experienced a net loss of 70.09 million yuan in the first half of 2025, despite a revenue increase of 4.72% to 10.451 billion yuan [5] - China Gold (600916.SH) expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a decrease of 55% to 65%, attributed to market conditions and reduced consumer traffic [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable polarization in the gold retail market, with high-end brands like Lao Pu experiencing strong demand and long queues, while mass-market brands struggle to attract consumers [6][7] - Lao Pu is projected to achieve a net profit growth of 224% in 2025, reaching 4.8 billion yuan, driven by strong demand during peak seasons [9] - The gold jewelry market is undergoing a transformation, with a shift towards cultural and product originality, as highlighted by recent investments in emerging brands [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, with forecasts suggesting a potential increase of 15% to 30% by 2026, and a bullish outlook from CITIC Securities predicting prices could exceed 5,100 USD per ounce by the end of 2026 [12]