以史为鉴，牛市如何“逃顶”？

Core Viewpoint - Current market sentiment is high, but investors may not be at the "exit moment" in this bull market, as there is still room before reaching the peak [1] Valuation Signals - The asset securitization ratio (total market value/GDP) is currently at 82%, indicating that asset prices still have room to rise compared to the scale of the real economy, as historical peaks were 110% in 2007 and 107% in 2015 [5] - The equity risk premium (ERP) has exceeded 1 standard deviation but has not yet reached the extreme level of 2 standard deviations, which typically indicates high market risk [8] - Main industry valuations are currently reasonable, without extreme premiums that characterize past bull market peaks [10] Trading Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73 and the sentiment indicator is at 81, indicating an overbought and overheated market; however, the MACD remains in a "golden cross" state, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [14] - Historical analysis shows that significant market tops have been confirmed by a combination of "RSI overbought + overheated sentiment" and a subsequent "MACD death cross," which has not yet occurred [14] - Financing balance is a valuable reference; when it approaches 2.5% of the circulating market value or when the financing buy amount reaches about 11% of the trading volume, it likely corresponds to a market peak [18]