极致贪婪时刻！美银基金经理调查：全球经济“不着陆”首次成共识，股票对冲策略几近崩溃

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are experiencing "extreme greed," with market sentiment reaching its highest level since mid-2021, as indicated by Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - A decisive shift in macro expectations has occurred, with "no landing" replacing "soft landing" as the baseline expectation for investors for the first time in three years [1] - A net 38% of investors expect global economic strength over the next 12 months, the highest since July 2021, while only 9% foresee a global recession, the lowest since January 2022 [4] - The proportion of investors anticipating "prosperity" has risen to 34%, the highest since September 2021, indicating improved expectations for corporate profits, with a net 44% expecting global profit growth [4] Group 2: Cash Levels and Defensive Strategies - Cash levels among fund managers have dropped to a historic low of 3.2%, down from 3.3% the previous month, reflecting a rapid deployment of available funds [7] - A record 48% of investors report having no hedging measures against significant stock market declines, indicating a retreat from defensive positions [7] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Sector Preferences - Investors have increased their net allocation to stocks by 6 percentage points to 48%, the highest since December 2024, while bond allocations have decreased to a net underweight of 35%, the lowest since September 2022 [9] - There is a notable shift in sector allocation, with banks being the most over-allocated sector at a net 34%, while consumer staples face significant selling pressure, with a net underweight of 30% [9] Group 4: Gold and Geopolitical Risks - Despite high risk appetite, "long gold" has emerged as the most crowded trade, with 51% of investors identifying it as such, surpassing the previously dominant "long U.S. tech giants" [10] - Geopolitical conflict is viewed as the largest tail risk by 28% of investors, highlighting a paradox of optimism for economic growth alongside concerns about potential risks [11] Group 5: Political and Policy Expectations - Investors anticipate a "divided Congress" following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, with 60% expecting Democrats to control the House and Republicans the Senate [13] - Regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership, 44% of investors predict Kevin Hassett will be nominated as the next chair, despite a slight decrease from the previous month [13]