【财经分析】双向开放下的中资境外债——结构重塑与2026年投资机遇

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese offshore bond market is undergoing a significant transformation from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a structural recovery expected in 2025 and a new value reassessment window anticipated in 2026 due to favorable factors such as the expansion of the "Southbound Pass" and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][9]. Market Overview - The Chinese offshore bond market, which includes bonds issued by Chinese entities in international markets, has shown a slight recovery from 2024 to 2025 after a deep adjustment from 2022 to 2023, although it remains in a phase of optimizing existing stock [1][2]. - In the first ten months of 2025, Chinese dollar bonds experienced a net outflow of $48.7 billion, while the offshore RMB bond market saw issuance of 1.24 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in growth dynamics [2]. Issuance Trends - The activity of Chinese securities firms in offshore financing has significantly increased, with seven firms issuing 30 offshore bonds totaling $4.703 billion in 2025, marking over a 30% increase in both the number of issuers and the scale compared to 2024 [3]. - The issuance of high-rated corporate bonds is maintaining a high proportion, with new issuers emerging in sectors like consumption, technology, mining, and energy, while real estate and steel industries continue to face credit risk challenges [4]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for Chinese offshore bonds is showing a dual characteristic of "fund inflow" and "clear structural preference," driven by insufficient supply of high-yield domestic assets and the expansion of the "Southbound Pass" [5]. - The "Southbound Pass" has enhanced market liquidity and vitality, becoming a core driver of demand growth by extending settlement periods and expanding the range of investors [5]. Challenges Ahead - Despite the demand recovery, the market faces challenges such as pressure from exchange rates and hedging costs, which may weaken the appeal of Chinese dollar bonds [6]. - Credit risks and regulatory uncertainties remain significant, particularly for small and medium-sized real estate firms, which could constrain supply flexibility and market risk appetite [7]. Future Outlook - The Chinese offshore bond market is expected to experience structural opportunities in 2026 due to global monetary policy shifts and deepening bilateral openness, with institutions advised to focus on the intersection of these factors for investment opportunities [8]. - A refined investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-rated, short-duration core assets while managing currency and policy risks to capture certain returns amid market volatility [9].