投资进化论丨自由现金流vs红利，怎么选？

Core Viewpoint - Dividend funds have been favored by conservative investors for a long time, but since 2025, free cash flow index funds have gained significant attention in the market as another product that emphasizes shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Understanding Free Cash Flow - Free cash flow is defined as the cash available after all operating costs, taxes, debt payments, and necessary capital expenditures have been deducted, representing the cash that can be freely allocated [2] - Free cash flow serves as a "litmus test" for assessing a company's health, indicating its ability to maintain operations, manage short-term debts, and support dividends, buybacks, or reinvestments [2] Group 2: Differences Between Free Cash Flow Strategy and Dividend Strategy - The core logic of the dividend strategy focuses on a company's willingness to distribute dividends, while the free cash flow strategy emphasizes a company's ability to generate cash for distribution [4] - Dividend strategy primarily generates returns through dividend income, while free cash flow strategy focuses on capital appreciation, often involving companies in growth phases with higher potential for valuation increases [5] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The industry distribution of the two strategies differs significantly; the dividend index tends to favor traditional, mature industries like finance and energy, while the free cash flow index includes sectors such as consumer goods and cyclical industries [6] Group 4: Historical Performance - Over the past five years, the free cash flow index has shown stronger offensive performance and higher elasticity compared to the dividend index, which has demonstrated more stability and defensive characteristics [10] - The cumulative return of the CSI 800 Free Cash Flow Index was 171.47% with an annualized return of 22.92% and an annualized volatility of 20.64%, while the CSI Dividend Index had a cumulative return of 53.43% with an annualized return of 9.25% and an annualized volatility of 16.17% [11] Group 5: Investor Suitability - The dividend index is more suitable for conservative investors with cash flow needs, while the free cash flow index is better suited for investors with a higher risk tolerance seeking long-term capital growth [12]