从2025年财政数据透视“国家账本” 重点领域支出保障“只强不弱”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025 and 2026, focusing on increasing fiscal spending, optimizing expenditure structure, and enhancing the effectiveness of fund utilization to support high-quality economic development [3][5][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy for 2025 - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [3]. - New government debt issuance is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, significantly exceeding the average levels of recent years [3]. - Special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan will be issued to bolster the core tier-one capital of major state-owned commercial banks, enhancing the banking sector's ability to support the real economy [3]. - A total of 500 billion yuan will be allocated for local government debt limits to improve local government financial capacity and expand effective investment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Support Measures - The issuance of ultra-long special bonds amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan aims to support key areas while improving the quality of life for citizens and promoting economic transformation [4]. - Continuous increases in fiscal investment in social welfare are expected to enhance consumer capacity and stimulate consumption [4]. - The fiscal policy for 2025 is designed to provide significant support for macroeconomic stability and progress [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will continue to be proactive, focusing on increasing total fiscal expenditure while ensuring necessary spending levels [5][7]. - The emphasis will be on optimizing the expenditure structure to ensure funds are allocated to critical areas [7]. - The government aims to improve the effectiveness of fund utilization, ensuring that every yuan spent generates expected benefits [7]. - Continued issuance of ultra-long special bonds will support key construction projects and policy implementation [7]. Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Trends - The overall fiscal revenue for 2025 is expected to show a "low in the beginning, high in the middle, and stable at the end" trend, with a projected decline of 1.1% in Q1, followed by growth in subsequent quarters [11]. - Tax revenue has been a major driver of fiscal income growth, maintaining year-on-year increases since April [11][12]. - Public budget expenditures are expected to remain strong, with significant allocations to social security, employment, technology, education, and health, totaling over 10 trillion yuan [12]. - The use of bond funds has accelerated, with expenditures of 5.15 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, a 45.5% increase from the previous year [12].