荣邦瑞明：2025年度城建投融资市场报告

Market Overview - The 2025 urban construction investment and financing market shows a clear pattern of "government bond support, market contraction," with a total scale of 7.48 trillion yuan, including 5.37 trillion yuan in new government bonds and 2.11 trillion yuan in market transactions [1][6][19] - Market investment is facing a dual decline in scale and quantity, with project numbers down 18% and scale down 6% year-on-year, primarily due to imbalanced investment structure and insufficient corporate confidence [1][11][19] Industry Analysis - The transportation sector dominates the market, accounting for 66.5% of transaction scale, with large projects like highways being the market's backbone [1][22] - Public utility projects lead in quantity but have smaller individual project scales, indicating a concentration of investment in larger, more stable sectors [1][24] Regional Distribution - The East China and Southwest regions are leading in market transactions, with funds flowing towards economically and populous provinces, as well as key western provinces [1][25][29] Corporate Participation - Local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are the main players, leading over 70% of project scales, while central SOEs' participation has decreased and private enterprises are mostly involved in smaller projects [1][27][30] Investment Models - The concession model has shown remarkable performance, with a 14% growth in scale, dominating the transportation sector at 84% and public utilities at 85.4%, becoming a core model for government-enterprise cooperation [1][19][35] Market Trends - The market is expected to continue being driven by policies in 2026, focusing on "two heavies and two news," urban renewal, and addressing shortfalls in people's livelihoods [2] - The real estate market is shifting from incremental expansion to quality improvement of existing assets, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to an integrated investment, construction, and operation model [2]