中国用电量破10万亿，格局之变藏着AI时代先手棋

Core Insights - China is projected to surpass other countries in electricity consumption and AI computing power by 2025, with total electricity usage expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, doubling from 2015 levels and surpassing the combined annual consumption of major economies like the EU, Russia, India, and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption Growth Drivers - The growth in electricity consumption is driven by industrial modernization, the rise of electric vehicles, and the increasing demand for AI computing power, reflecting a shift from traditional high-energy industries to high-end manufacturing [2][3]. - By 2025, the second industry will account for 64% of total electricity consumption, with significant contributions from high-end manufacturing and the recovery of the service sector, indicating a collaborative growth pattern [2][3]. - The rapid expansion of electric vehicle applications is a key contributor to electricity demand, with the charging and swapping service industry experiencing explosive growth due to the increasing adoption of green transportation [3][4]. Group 2: AI and Data Center Energy Demand - The development of AI, particularly large models, is highly energy-intensive, with data centers consuming electricity comparable to that of small cities. The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to significantly boost electricity demand in the data sector [3][4]. - By 2025, electricity consumption for internet data services in Guizhou is projected to surge by 95.01%, with Huawei's cloud data center in Gui'an experiencing a 56.92% increase in electricity usage, highlighting the exponential growth in computing power demand [3][4]. Group 3: Power Supply and Infrastructure - China's electricity supply system is the largest and most advanced globally, with total installed capacity expected to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts by 2025, accounting for one-third of global capacity and achieving a supply reliability rate of 99.9% [5][6]. - The transition of electricity from a basic guarantee to a core hub in the energy structure is evident, with non-fossil energy sources now constituting over 60% of installed capacity, making renewable energy the dominant force in power generation [5][6]. - The construction of 46 ultra-high voltage transmission lines facilitates efficient energy transfer from the west to the east, optimizing resource allocation and enhancing energy security [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Energy Planning - China's long-term strategic planning emphasizes building a strong energy nation, focusing on a clean, low-carbon, and efficient energy system to support future industries like AI and high-end manufacturing [7][8]. - The ongoing development of large hydropower projects not only addresses current electricity demand but also positions China favorably in the global energy landscape, enhancing the flexibility and stability of the power system [8][9]. - The strategic value of electricity is increasingly recognized as a critical factor in ensuring energy security and supporting industrial competitiveness in the context of global technological competition [9].