美银亚洲基金经理调查：印度失宠，中国叙事反转，半导体还是“全班最靓的仔”

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Preferences - The latest Bank of America Asia Fund Manager Survey indicates a significant restructuring of market sentiment in the region, with Japan being the most favored market for 27 consecutive months, while India shifted from slight over-allocation to slight under-allocation [1] - The long-term structural narrative for the Chinese market has reversed, with investor optimism reaching the highest level since the survey's inception [1] - The return expectations for the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, have surged to the historical 92nd percentile, marking a two-year high [1] Group 2: Sector Preferences - The semiconductor sector continues to dominate investor preferences, with 54% of respondents over-allocating to this sector, the highest among all industries [3][18] - In the Chinese market, AI and semiconductor themes have reached a record high in popularity, with 66% of respondents listing them as their favorite themes [3][12] - The expectation for a strengthening semiconductor cycle is at a near three-year high, with 58% of respondents anticipating growth in exports from Korea and Taiwan [21] Group 3: Japan's Economic Outlook - Japan maintains a leading position with a net over-allocation ratio of 54%, consistently ranking as the top choice for investors since October 2023 [4] - A majority of respondents (63%) expect Japan's economy to "slightly strengthen," with 21% anticipating a "significant strengthening" [9] - The return expectations for the Japanese market have reached the highest historical quintile, with 33% of respondents expecting returns exceeding 10% in the next 12 months [9] Group 4: China’s Market Dynamics - There is a notable sentiment shift in the Chinese market, with a net 13% of respondents expecting the economy to strengthen, a significant reversal from a net 29% expecting weakness last November [10][12] - The proportion of respondents believing that the Chinese stock market is undergoing a structural valuation adjustment has dropped to 38%, the lowest since the survey began [12] - 83% of respondents expect further easing of China's monetary policy, maintaining a high level of expectation [12] Group 5: Overall Market Valuation and Growth Expectations - A net 63% of respondents expect corporate earnings in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, to improve, placing this expectation at the historical 84th percentile [22] - Despite high return expectations, respondents generally view regional stock valuations as reasonable, with a net 17% believing that the Asia-Pacific market, excluding Japan, is undervalued [25] - The strengthening global growth outlook is a key driver of optimism, with the economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, reaching a two-year high [25]