美论坛：美国的制裁使中国经济正在衰退，中国是否再次变得贫穷？

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting January 2025, escalating to 145% by April, targeting electronics, automobiles, and chemicals [1] - Despite a 20% decline in exports to the U.S. and a 14.6% drop in imports, China's total trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion, indicating a shift in export markets to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East [3][5] - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.4%, 4.8%, and 4.5%, with exports contributing nearly one-third and consumption accounting for 52% [5] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49, indicating contraction, with significant fluctuations in factory orders, particularly in industries heavily reliant on the U.S. [8] - The real estate market is lagging, consumer recovery is slow, and new bank loans decreased by 10%, the lowest since 2018, reflecting weak corporate borrowing demand [8] - China is actively expanding its market through the Belt and Road Initiative, with exports to Southeast Asia and Africa increasing by 15% and 20% respectively, compensating for the loss of U.S. market share [8] Group 3 - The U.S. faces its own challenges, including high debt levels and inflation pressures, with many companies struggling due to lost market share in China [10] - In November 2025, the U.S. and China reached a partial trade consensus, with the U.S. moderately lowering tariffs on some Chinese goods in exchange for stable supplies of strategic resources [10] - China's increased investment in R&D, particularly in the semiconductor sector, is enhancing its technological self-sufficiency, while U.S. tech companies are losing market share due to restrictions [10]