特朗普“让全球股市再次伟大”？非美市场大涨30%，美股表现创33年来最惨落后

Core Viewpoint - Despite Donald Trump's assertion that the U.S. has become the "hottest" country globally, the financial markets' actual performance indicates a stark contrast, with global stock markets significantly outperforming Wall Street during his first year in office [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since Trump's inauguration, global stock markets (measured by the MSCI index) have risen approximately 30%, which is about double the increase of the S&P 500 index during the same period [1]. - This marks the most significant underperformance of U.S. stocks relative to global markets in the first year of a presidential term since 1993 [1]. - The S&P 500 index's performance in Trump's second term's first year ranks only ninth among all presidents since World War II, trailing behind several predecessors, including his own first term [6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Capital Flows - Investor sentiment has been affected by uncertainties stemming from Trump's policies on trade, foreign relations, and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, leading to capital flowing towards emerging markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [7]. - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw an increase of over 30% last year, marking its largest gain since 2017, as investors seek better performance outside the U.S. [9]. - Despite the relative underperformance of U.S. stocks, the absolute returns remain substantial, with the S&P 500 achieving double-digit growth for the third consecutive year [9]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Volatility - Trump's administration has caused significant market volatility, with unexpected policy decisions leading to rapid changes in market dynamics [8]. - The S&P 500's largest 100 components experienced 47 instances of declines exceeding five standard deviations in 2025, the highest since 1998, indicating heightened market instability [8]. - The upcoming midterm elections are expected to introduce additional risks, as historical data suggests that election years often see weaker stock market performance due to uncertainties surrounding potential political changes [10].