LME铜现货升水创28年新高！三巨头锁死16万吨头寸，空头深陷“实物挤仓”危机

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper market is experiencing significant volatility, with spot prices surging above futures prices, indicating large-scale inventory withdrawals and a conflict between substantial long positions held by three entities and severely insufficient deliverable inventory [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Tom/next spread, a key indicator of immediate demand in the LME storage network, has seen a dramatic increase, with the spread rising by $64, marking one of the largest daily increases since 1998 [1]. - As of last Thursday, three independent entities held long positions that accounted for at least 30% of the open interest in the January contract, which translates to over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total deliverable inventory in the LME storage network [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The current situation reflects a "physical squeeze" where short sellers are compelled to either find physical copper for delivery or incur high costs to roll over their positions [2]. - The long-term outlook for the copper market indicates structural supply tightness extending to 2028, with most monthly spreads showing backwardation, suggesting expectations of future supply shortages [3]. Group 3: Geographic Inventory Imbalance - Although global copper inventories are currently at sufficient levels, there is a significant regional imbalance, with a large concentration of inventory in U.S. warehouses due to previous tariff policies [6]. - Recent increases in LME copper inventory, including a rise of 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, were primarily driven by deliveries from Asian warehouses and small inflows into New Orleans [6].