杨德龙：2026年资本市场的主要投资机会｜立方大家谈

Economic Growth and Structure - In 2025, China's GDP achieved a growth of 5%, meeting the initial target, but quarterly growth rates showed a declining trend: 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% [1] - The trade surplus reached a historic high of over $1.1 trillion, demonstrating strong export competitiveness despite trade tensions [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate was 0%, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced negative growth, indicating insufficient demand and excess capacity in the industrial sector [1] Industrial and Consumption Data - Industrial production saw a growth of 5.9% for the year, with notable increases in 3D printing equipment (52.5%), industrial robots (28%), and new energy vehicles (25.1%) [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, but the growth rate showed a significant slowdown, particularly in December with a year-on-year increase of only 0.9% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, primarily due to a 17.2% decline in real estate development investment, highlighting the pressure on stabilizing investment amid real estate adjustments [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to strengthen domestic demand and adapt to the upgrading of demand structures, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [3] Industry Focus and Future Opportunities - The focus for 2026 includes sectors like robotics, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with expectations for continued growth in technology-driven industries [4] - The construction of 6G networks is anticipated to create new demand for communication equipment, while the commercial aerospace sector has seen a significant correction after previous hype [4] Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend, with a focus on technology stocks and some undervalued quality stocks attracting attention [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, avoiding excessive leverage and focusing on long-term, value-based investments to capitalize on the slow bull market opportunities [5]