LME铜现货溢价飙升！创纪录价差暗示库存争夺战打响

Group 1 - The LME copper spot price has significantly risen compared to future contract prices, indicating that traders may be extracting large amounts of inventory from the exchange's warehouses [1] - The premium for the copper contract expiring on Wednesday was $64 higher than the next day's contract, a market condition known as backwardation, suggesting an increase in immediate demand [1] - This price movement is among the highest levels recorded since 1998, reflecting increased volatility in the LME copper market [1] Group 2 - As of Thursday, three independent institutions held at least 30% of the open interest in the January contracts, which could allow them to withdraw over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the available inventory in the LME network [4] - The surge in the Tom/next spread indicates that short position holders may face significant losses if they do not roll over their contracts [4] Group 3 - The current market conditions signal a more severe structural supply constraint in the global copper industry, with many analysts predicting a deep shortage by the end of 2028 [5] - Although global copper inventories are currently sufficient, they are heavily concentrated in U.S. warehouses, leading to record shipments to the U.S. due to anticipated tariff changes [5] Group 4 - The recent increase in LME copper inventory, with an addition of 8,875 tons, brings the total to 156,300 tons, driven by inflows into New Orleans and Baltimore warehouses [8] - The fluctuations in the price spread have had minimal impact on the three-month copper contract, which experienced a maximum daily drop of 1.4% due to broader market sell-offs [8]