有机硅价格回暖，合盛硅业乘“反内卷”东风迎行业反转

Core Viewpoint - The organic silicon DMC market is experiencing a significant price increase due to tightening supply and rising demand from high-end sectors such as new energy and electronics, with prices reaching approximately 13,700 to 14,000 yuan per ton as of January 15 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The organic silicon DMC price has risen from about 11,300 yuan per ton at the end of October 2025 to around 13,200 yuan per ton by mid-November, marking a monthly increase of approximately 20% [2] - The average operating rate in the organic silicon industry is currently around 66%, with no significant inventory pressure, and supply is expected to tighten further in January [3] - The organic silicon industry is projected to face supply-demand gaps of -1.9 million tons, -29.4 million tons, and -18.4 million tons from 2025 to 2027, respectively, due to mismatches caused by expansion cycles [4] Group 2: Policy and Industry Changes - The "anti-involution" policy initiated in November 2025 aims to reduce industry overcapacity, with a consensus among industry leaders to lower operating rates by 30% [2] - The adjustment of export tax policies for primary polysiloxane products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to guide the industry towards higher-end product development and production [5] - The implementation of strict policies regarding "double carbon" and environmental safety is accelerating the exit of outdated production capacities, benefiting leading companies like Hoshine Silicon Industry [7] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Hoshine Silicon Industry is identified as a leading player in the organic silicon sector, with a significant recovery in profitability, reporting a net profit of 262 million yuan in the third quarter, marking a turnaround from previous losses [6][8] - Forecasts suggest that Hoshine's net profits will increase to 2.651 billion yuan, 4.381 billion yuan, and 5.132 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028, reflecting the company's strong market position and operational advantages [8]