房企穿越周期：龙头转型不动产运营，招商蛇口押中沐曦、长鑫

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is expected to stabilize as companies navigate through the current market challenges and explore new growth avenues, with major players like Poly Developments taking significant steps to adjust their strategies and financials [2][3][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Developments reported an estimated revenue of approximately 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.09%, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.03 billion yuan, a decline compared to 2024 [2][3]. - The company plans to recognize asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaling around 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce the net profit for 2025 by approximately 4.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - Excluding the impact of impairment provisions, Poly Developments' net profit for 2025 is estimated to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter contributing approximately 3.3 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The real estate sector is witnessing a cautious yet orderly expansion in investments, with companies focusing on stabilizing their operations and gradually reducing the impact of impairment provisions [2][3]. - The top 100 real estate companies in China are projected to have a total land acquisition amount of 964 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [4]. - The market is expected to see a recovery in 2026 as companies navigate through the peak of delivery and debt repayment, entering a new development phase [2][6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Many leading real estate firms are diversifying into long-cycle industries and real estate operations, with plans to invest in high-tech sectors and enhance service offerings [3][5]. - Poly Developments has expanded its operational assets to 5.73 million square meters, including 26,000 rental housing units, which increased by 18% compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - Other companies like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou are also pursuing similar strategies in real estate operations and indirect investments through industry funds [5].