学会“不操作”，是投资赚钱的开始

Market Overview - The A-share market showed significant divergence on January 20, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining by 0.01% to close at 4113.65 points, while the growth indices, including the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, fell by 1.79% and 1.58% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in both markets increased to 2.78 trillion yuan, indicating a large-scale migration of funds from previously high-performing sectors like AI and new energy to undervalued traditional sectors such as real estate, infrastructure, and oil and petrochemicals [1] - This shift in market style was driven by clear policy signals from financial regulatory authorities aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and the Ministry of Finance's push for investment recovery, which collectively boosted market confidence in traditional sectors and guided a change in risk appetite [1] Investment Philosophy - The art of "doing nothing" in investing is highlighted as a crucial discipline, contrasting with the common perception that action equates to diligence and opportunity [2] - Investment is compared to horse racing, where the key is to identify moments when the odds are clearly in favor, emphasizing that betting should only occur when the probability of success exceeds 50% [2] - The concept of "shame" in investing is redefined; true shame lies in overpaying for assets without a clear advantage, rather than missing out on opportunities [3] - Investors are encouraged to hold cash until a significant price misalignment occurs, which requires patience and a deep understanding of one's own investment capabilities [3] - The current A-share market, characterized by macro predictions and sector rotations, underscores the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective focused on cash flow generation rather than chasing short-term trends [3] Investment Strategy - "Sitting and waiting" is presented as an active choice that reflects confidence in one's judgment and respect for the power of compounding [4] - The true winners in investing are those who remain calm amidst market frenzy and act decisively only when they have a high level of confidence [4] - The investment philosophy emphasizes deep-rooted value, seeking companies with wide economic moats and trustworthy management, and investing during market panic when prices are significantly below intrinsic value [5]