台积电不相信AI有泡沫

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's financial report serves as a strong endorsement for the AI industry, showcasing significant growth and profitability metrics that exceed expectations, with a gross margin surpassing 60% and continuous revenue growth over eight quarters [1][19]. Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results showed revenue growth for eight consecutive quarters, with a gross margin of 62.3%, rivaling software giants [1][24]. - The company reported a substantial increase in capital expenditure guidance for 2026, projecting between $52 billion and $56 billion, a significant rise from $40.9 billion in 2025, indicating strong future demand [3][21]. Group 2: Market Position and Technology - TSMC's dominance is attributed to its 3nm process technology and advanced packaging solutions, with 3nm revenue accounting for 28% of total revenue in Q4 2025, marking a record high [6][24]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin due to the unique demand for AI computing chips, with major clients like NVIDIA and AMD driving this demand [9][27]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC's ability to maintain high margins is partly due to the lack of strong competition in advanced process nodes, as rivals like Samsung and Intel have struggled to keep pace [10][28]. - The advanced packaging technology, particularly CoWoS, has become critical for AI chips, with TSMC capturing a significant share of this market, further solidifying its competitive edge [11][31]. Group 4: Client Dynamics - NVIDIA has emerged as a key client, with expectations that it will surpass Apple as TSMC's largest customer by 2026, reflecting a shift in the client landscape [17][35]. - TSMC's collaboration with NVIDIA has evolved from process design to system-level integration, indicating a deepening partnership that could redefine the future of chip manufacturing [34][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - TSMC's capital expenditure plans suggest a robust growth trajectory, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 25% from 2024 to 2029, driven by strong demand for advanced process technologies [19][37]. - The company has already secured significant orders for its upcoming 2nm process, indicating a healthy pipeline of demand that contrasts sharply with the challenges faced during the initial rollout of the 3nm process [37].