格陵兰岛风波持续发酵，美股准备先跌为敬？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland is impacting the market, prompting Wall Street to prepare for stock sell-offs before understanding the reasons behind them [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges global calm amid rising tensions, but rational voices are not prevailing [1][5]. - Citigroup downgraded European stock ratings due to potential corporate profit impacts, marking the first downgrade in a year, despite European stocks previously outperforming US stocks by 2025 [1][5]. - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson notes that the direct cost impact of President Trump's new tariff threats on major US indices is limited, but sectors with lower weight in indices, such as automotive, consumer staples, materials, and healthcare, face the greatest risks [1][5]. Group 2: Potential Risks - Wilson warns that the most significant risk from the Greenland crisis is whether the EU will activate its "anti-coercion tool" targeting the service sector, which could pose greater challenges for major US tech stocks [1][5]. - The EU's "anti-coercion tool," introduced in 2021, serves as a deterrent and encompasses measures beyond tariffs, including investment restrictions and taxes on US assets and services [2][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Asset Preferences - Concerns about US tech companies being primary targets of EU countermeasures are reflected in the Nasdaq 100 futures, which are declining ahead of upcoming earnings reports from major US tech firms [2][6]. - TS Lombard's Christopher Granville suggests that significant market declines will only occur if US-EU tensions escalate beyond tariff increases to more aggressive confrontations, such as using LNG exports as leverage or restricting US tech companies' market access [2][6]. - Wilson expresses a favorable outlook on small-cap stocks, noting that their fundamentals are improving, which is driving their relative outperformance despite a cooling market expectation for Fed rate cuts [2][6][7]. Group 4: Recommended Small-Cap Sectors - Morgan Stanley identifies preferred small-cap sectors, including consumer discretionary, regional/mid-sized banks, short-cycle industrials, and biotechnology [3][7].