高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津：看好AI、“反内卷”、出海等题材

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on Chinese stocks for 2026, expecting southbound capital to reach a new high of $200 billion and northbound capital to achieve a net inflow of $20 billion, driven by demand for physical AI and a stronger RMB [1] - The growth drivers identified include artificial intelligence, "anti-involution," and overseas expansion, which are expected to push the earnings per share growth rate between 10% and 15% [1] - China's strong export performance is anticipated to increase market share for Chinese companies, with overseas revenue share rising from 12% in 2015 to 16% currently, and projected to reach 20% by the end of 2030 [1] Group 2 - Chinese listed companies' cash returns are expected to reach a new high of approximately 4 trillion yuan in 2026, with net buybacks enhancing earnings per share growth [2] - The two main investment themes for 2026 and beyond are policy support and AI, which are expected to reshape sector allocations [2] - The technology hardware sector has been upgraded to overweight due to its diverse product supply chain, with a focus on smartphones, AI servers, data centers, semiconductors, and physical AI stocks, which are seen as key enablers and beneficiaries of AI development in China [2]