每日投行/机构观点梳理（2026-01-20）

Group 1 - Westpac's commodity research head Robert Rennie indicates that global financial markets are underestimating the seriousness of the situation regarding Greenland, particularly in light of the Trump administration's attempts to exert control over the territory [1] - The market is awaiting Trump's speech at the Davos Forum and the results of an emergency European summit to better understand the severity of the situation [1] Group 2 - Bank of America reports that global investor sentiment has reached its highest level since July 2021, with a significant drop in cash holdings to a historical low of 3.2% [2] - The bank's bull-bear indicator has surged to an "ultra-bull" level of 9.4, with 38% of surveyed fund managers expecting economic strength and concerns about recession at a two-year low [2] - Liquidity conditions are the best since 2021, and nearly half of respondents have no hedging measures against a significant stock market decline [2] Group 3 - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that global capitalism is losing public trust as prosperity is not benefiting a wide population, suggesting that success should be measured by people's ability to perceive and feel it [3] - Fink expresses concerns that artificial intelligence could exacerbate inequality, urging Davos to listen more to the voices of ordinary people rather than just the elite [3] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs predicts that emerging market equities will be the most attractive investment destination globally over the next one and five years, with an expected base return rate of 8% [4] - The probability of emerging market returns exceeding expectations is estimated at 20%, while the chance of experiencing low single-digit negative returns is 25% [4] Group 5 - Citigroup's Japan market head, Akira Hoshino, suggests that if the yen continues to weaken, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times in 2026, potentially doubling the current rate [5] - Hoshino indicates that if the USD/JPY exchange rate exceeds 160, a rate hike could occur as early as April, with further hikes possible in July and by the end of the year [5] Group 6 - Tokyo State Street Asset Management's senior fixed income strategist, Masahiko Loo, states that the "high market trade" strategy remains effective, with shorting the yen being the simplest strategy [6] - Loo notes a significant herd effect in the Japanese market, leading banks to refrain from buying until the Bank of Japan raises rates [6] Group 7 - CICC reports that recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is partly due to seasonal increases in settlement demand, particularly in December and January [7] - The report highlights that historically, the RMB has appreciated by 0.5% and 0.8% against the USD in December and January, respectively, with probabilities of appreciation at 75% and 67% [7] Group 8 - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that AI and anti-involution themes may become the main lines of the A-share market in 2026, with AI-driven trends extending from upstream infrastructure to downstream applications [8] - The report notes that AI's contribution to improving PPI is primarily reflected in the prices of non-ferrous metals and technology sectors [8] Group 9 - Galaxy Securities expresses optimism about the dividend value of the banking sector, citing structural monetary policy tools and improving credit demand as supportive factors [9] - The report anticipates that the first batch of listed banks will show stable recovery in performance, with ongoing policy effects expected to be released [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities sees high certainty in the development of computing power and anticipates significant investment opportunities in domestic computing chips and system-level manufacturers by 2026 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in various sectors, suggesting a focus on office, coding, agent, and multi-modal AI applications [10] Group 11 - CITIC Securities notes a cooling of market speculation, with record outflows from the ETF market, while technology and cyclical sector ETFs continue to attract funds [11] - The report suggests that a multi-dimensional comparative allocation strategy is more prudent in the current environment, recommending attention to various ETFs in sectors like new energy and healthcare [11]