Ge Long Hui·2026-01-20 14:01Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant impact of AI on global economic growth and stock market performance, particularly in the U.S. and China, highlighting the importance of AI investments in driving GDP growth and stock returns [1][11]. Economic Contribution - U.S. technology hardware and software investments are projected to contribute 0.8 percentage points to the annualized GDP growth of 2.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - Since 2023, U.S. non-farm business sector labor productivity has increased by 7.2% [4]. Stock Market Performance - Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, the "Magnificent Seven" stocks in the U.S. contributed 45 percentage points to the S&P 500 index returns, accounting for over half of the total returns [1]. - In Hong Kong, seven leading tech stocks contributed 14 percentage points to the Hang Seng Index returns, representing 40% of the total returns since the launch of DeepSeek in early 2025 [7]. AI Industry Dynamics - The U.S. has a first-mover advantage in AI infrastructure, models, and talent, while China is rapidly catching up, particularly in open-source models [16][19]. - The global cloud computing market is expected to reach $692.9 billion in 2024, with North America holding a 54.3% market share and China at 16.8% [20]. Investment Landscape - U.S. nominal investment in AI technology hardware and software is approximately $1.05 trillion, accounting for 3.4% of nominal GDP, while China's investment is around $650 billion, also about 3.3% of nominal GDP [42]. - The AI investment landscape shows that the U.S. is primarily driven by private sector investments, while China's investments are significantly supported by government funding [52]. Funding Sources - U.S. AI investments are predominantly led by the private sector, with a total investment of $552 billion, compared to China's $900 billion, which includes substantial government support [52]. - The Chinese government has invested approximately $750 billion in AI, significantly higher than the U.S. government's $110 billion [57]. Investment Focus - U.S. investments are heavily focused on data centers and supporting infrastructure, while China is investing more in chip development and AI models [58]. - In 2025, U.S. leading companies are expected to invest $4 billion in the foundational layer, with 88% directed towards infrastructure [59]. Talent and Research - The number of AI researchers in China has grown significantly, with Chinese researchers holding three times as many AI patents as their U.S. counterparts [41]. - The rapid increase in AI talent in China is enhancing its research capabilities, narrowing the gap with the U.S. [41]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the U.S. will continue to invest heavily in data centers and energy equipment, which will drive demand for related supply chains in China [88]. - China's ongoing need for chips and AI infrastructure indicates a sustained demand and policy support in the semiconductor sector [88].