俄罗斯越打越富？俄可能在2026年因油价崩溃，损失高达两万亿卢布

Group 1 - Russia's oil and gas revenue for 2025 is projected to be approximately 8.467 trillion rubles (about 108.9 billion USD), marking a 24% decrease year-on-year and the lowest level since 2020 [2] - The price of Russian Urals crude oil has significantly dropped, with average prices falling to around 40 USD per barrel in December 2022, down from 45 USD in November 2022 [2][3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, making Russian oil less attractive to buyers and increasing transportation risks [3][5] Group 2 - Attacks by Ukrainian forces on Russian ports and oil tankers have further pressured oil prices, leading to increased insurance and shipping costs that traders pass on to producers [5] - Only Russian oil producers benefiting from tax incentives can remain profitable under current price conditions, leading to potential tax negotiations with the government in 2026 [6] - The Russian government requires oil prices to reach 59 USD per barrel to meet its budgetary needs, but forecasts suggest prices will fall below this threshold, resulting in a budget deficit of 1.5 to 3 trillion rubles [8][11] Group 3 - The global oil market is expected to see a downward trend in prices, with Brent crude oil projected to average 55.87 USD per barrel in 2026, significantly lower than previous estimates [9][11] - The Russian budget is heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues, with a potential loss of 34% of planned revenues if oil prices remain low [12] - The Kremlin is unlikely to reduce military spending despite budget shortfalls, indicating a need for alternative revenue sources to address fiscal challenges [12]