再创新高：国际银价突破95美元！白银为何突然狂飙？普通人该不该跟风入场？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a historic high of over $95 per ounce with a single-day increase of nearly 7%, is attributed to multiple converging factors, including trade tensions, monetary policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [1][10]. Market Background - Global silver inventories are critically low, with London vaults only sufficient for 1.2 months of global usage, indicating a severe supply crunch [3]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has been aggressively accumulating silver, increasing its holdings by 11.28 tons on January 16, raising total holdings to 16,073.06 tons, signaling strong demand [3]. Factors Driving Price Surge - Trade Risk Aversion: Heightened trade tensions, particularly due to U.S. tariffs on European countries and geopolitical statements from the U.S., have led to increased demand for silver as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest potential rate cuts in 2026, weakening the U.S. dollar and making silver more expensive in dollar terms [5]. - Industrial Demand Growth: Silver's role has expanded beyond jewelry to critical applications in the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar energy, where demand is projected to exceed 5,000 tons in 2026, representing over 55% of total global demand [6]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The surge in silver prices has prompted some industries to explore alternatives to silver, such as copper and aluminum, potentially reducing industrial demand [8]. - While short-term gains are significant, there are warnings of a potential 20%-30% price correction due to speculative trading and overbought conditions in the market [8]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with expected annual price increases of 10%-15% driven by ongoing demand from the solar and electric vehicle sectors, alongside supportive monetary policies [8][10].